Where was that “hiatus”?

Some people are still believing that the global temperature somehow has not increased, or increased less than expected in the last 18 years. Nothing is further from the truth: taking the average of the four most commonly used surface temperature series (GISS, NCEI, Hadcrut, JMA) until mid 2015 we get the following picture:

27-08-15a

Yes, the last 18 years the linear increase was less than the increase in the 30 years before, but that does not mean the overall rise in global temperature anomaly was smaller: there is also this jump that needs to be taken into account. If we do that, the total increase is very consistently 0.14 degrees per decade since 1967.

Let’s zoom in on the upper right corner, it contains an extra message:

27-08-15b The median of all anomalies since mid 1997 lays .16 above the chosen reference temperature (the average of 1986 – 2006),  but what is astonishing is thathalf of the months in the last 18 years have been warmer than any month before (with two exeptions). .

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2 Responses to Where was that “hiatus”?

  1. What could have caused this jump. Was it just a matter of extra warming or had it something to do with a different way of collecting or processing the data? I have seen this jump in data from some weatherstations. Maybe the mean temperature is calculated in a different way? Have you any idea?

    • mrooijer says:

      There is no real jump of course, because that would mean that in one second the whole global temperature would have increased by 0.15 which is physically completely inpossible. . The jump we see here shows an error in the analysis method used by deniers.

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